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Bond Report: Treasury yields steady as key jobs report awaits

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Treasury yields were steady Friday ahead of key data on the state of the U.S. jobs market.

What’s happening
  • The yield on the 2-year Treasury
    TMUBMUSD02Y,
    4.278%

    was steady at 4.26%. Yields move in the opposite direction to prices.
  • The yield on the 10-year Treasury
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    3.847%

    inched up 1 basis point to 3.83%.
  • The yield on the 30-year Treasury
    TMUBMUSD30Y,
    3.801%

    was steady at 3.78%.
What’s driving markets

The nonfarm payrolls report is due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, with economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expecting jobs growth to slow to 275,000 but the unemployment rate staying steady at 3.7%.

Strategists at ING said the most important part of the report may be the wage data. “The 5% handle on the wages number is arguably the most relevant part of the payrolls report for markets, as wage inflation is where second-round effects come from, risking the manufacture of permanently elevated inflation. And wage inflation is liable to remain elevated if jobs growth continues, which is why the second focus for attention is on the 250k growth in jobs expected; still quite a chunky number,” they said in a note to clients.

Fed Gov. Christopher Waller late on Thursday said he doesn’t expect the jobs report to change anyone’s thinking at the central bank. New York Fed President John Williams will have the opportunity to comment on the data when he speaks at 10 a.m.

The ING strategists say the price action this week suggests the market has moved away from the early Fed pivot idea. “We may well have seen the structural top at 4% for the 10yr, or thereabouts, but we also feel we’re liable to see it at least one more time. There is a large fall in market rates to come, but we’re not at that point just yet,” they added.

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