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MarketWatch Premium: Could there be a stock market rally? Probably. Would it be the end of the bear market? Probably not.

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The stock market’s low for the year on the last day in September is likely to be breached in this bear market, according to a contrarian analysis of market timer sentiment.

That’s because at no point in this bear market has there been the thorough-going pessimism and despair that often accompanies major bottoms — what many refer to as capitulation, or throwing in the towel.

We’ve…

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