MarketWatch Premium: Small-cap stocks will go nowhere over the next year, according to the indicator with the best track record


The Russell 2000 Index, which tracks small- and mid-cap stocks, will be lower in a year’s time, according to the indicator I follow that has the best record forecasting the stock market’s 12-month returns.

The indicator, which says the index RUT will be 1.1% lower, is based on a number that appears each week in the Value Line Investment Survey. Known as the Value Line Median Appreciation Potential, or VLMAP, this statistic represents the median of the projections made by Value Line’s analysts of where the 1,700 widely followed…

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